Following up the research on India, Goldman Sachs and Co. economists Jim O’Neill and Tushar Poddar have come up with a report on 10 things the country needs to do to achieve a per capita GDP of at least $20,000 (Rs 8.58 lakh today) by 2050 (from less than $1,000 now).

Ten Things for India to Achieve Its 2050 Potential, is a grim reminder that India has fallen to the bottom of the four BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) in its growth scores, due largely to government inertia. The report states that India’s rice yields are a third those of China and half of Vietnam’s. While 60% of the country’s labor force is employed in agriculture, farming contributes less than 1% to overall growth. The report urges India to improve governance, raise educational achievement, and control inflation. It also advises reining in profligate expenditures, liberalizing its financial markets, increasing agricultural productivity, and improving infrastructure, the environment, and energy use.

Here is the excerpts from the report:

1. Improve governance.
2. Raise educational achievement. According to our basic indicators, a vast number of India’s young people receive no (or only the most basic) education. A major effort to boost basic education is needed.
3. At the other end of the spectrum, India should also have a more defined plan to raise the number and the quality of top universities.
4. Control inflation. We think a formal adoption of inflation targeting would be a very sensible move….
5. Introduce a credible fiscal policy. We also believe that India should introduce a more credible medium-term plan for fiscal policy. Targeting low and stable inflation is not easy if fiscal policy is poorly maintained.
6. Liberalize financial markets.
7. Increase trade with neighbors. In terms of international trade, India continues to be much less “open” than many of its other large emerging nation colleagues, especially China… We would recommend that India target a major increase in trade with China, Pakistan and Bangladesh.
8. Increase agricultural productivity.
9. Improve infrastructure.
10. Improve environmental quality. Achieving greater energy efficiencies and boosting the cleanliness of energy and water usage would increase the likelihood of a sustainable stronger growth path for India.

[Source: Goldman Sachs; Global Economics Paper No. 169 and Experts: LiveMint, Businessweek ]

The Green Revolution

The Green Revolution refers to the transformation of agriculture that began in 1943 in the developing world, and led in some places to significant increases in agricultural production between the 1940s and 1960s. The Green Revolution has had major social and ecological impacts.

• With the experience of agricultural development begun in Mexico judged as a success, the Rockefeller Foundation sought to spread the Green Revolution to other nations.
• In 1961 India was on the brink of mass famine. Indian state of Punjab was selected by the Indian government to be the first site to try the new crops because of its reliable water supply and a history of agricultural success. India began its own Green Revolution program of plant breeding, irrigation development, and financing of agrochemicals.
• India soon adopted IR8 - a rice variety developed by the International Rice Research Institute that could produce more grains of rice per plant when grown properly with fertilizer and irrigation.
• In the 1960s, rice yields in India were about two tons per hectare; by the mid-1990s, they had risen to six tons per hectare. In the 1970s, rice cost about $550 a ton; in 2001, it cost less than $200 a ton. India became one of the world’s most successful rice producers, and is now a major rice exporter, shipping nearly 4.5 million tons in 2006.

It’s Time for a second green revolution in view of the global food crisis.

How to grow more food on the same amount of land: the challenge has been a constant in human history. New answers have allowed growth in population and in living standards, but with today’s surge in food prices the need to raise agricultural productivity is once again pressing. To grow more food is possible – but dogmatism about how or where to do so would be unwise.

More on FT.com [Time for a second green revolution] and [wikipedia]

image credit : greenschool.org